Month: May 2023

Some people have been scratching their heads after National’s Treasure’s upset in the Preakness. It was a strange race from the late scratch of First Mission to the outcome of the Kentucky Derby winner getting beat. Mage’s final odds of 7-5 might have been telling, where the public discounted him rather than making him an underlay (1 or less), which would have been the norm in a big race like this one. As mentioned in the preview, National Treasure’s COMP value of 72.2% was extraordinary high for a non-favorite. The COMP value, again, is combined win probabilities of the individual speed figures (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) from the simulation. On that basis, he was a 2-5 horse. Instead, he went off at a little less than 3-1. The high COMP value showed National Treasure’s power that he was strong from start to finish. Of course, COMP is not fool-proof but indicates only how the numbers stack up in a rigorous comparison with a one thousand times simulation. The other factor is that Baffert has been very successful in the Preakness. National Treasure gave him his eighth win.

Here are the projections again after the scratch of #8 First Mission.

Tomorrow is the second of the Triple Crown Races, the $1.5 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. It’s run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. After his win in the Kentucky Derby, #3 Mage is the M/L favorite at 8/5 odds. That it right about where the Handicap Wizard is valuing him in terms of his total win probability of 38.05%. However, he’s better than 8/5 according to his final speed projection of 47.7% and his stakes weighted Win Percentage at 53.4%, as in 1-1 odds. Next is #8 First Mission, who is 5/2 on the M/L. The Handicap Wizard has him as the third selection and at around 6-1 fair value with a total win probability of 15.53%. First Mission is the only other horse than Mage to have recorded at 103 final speed figure, which he did in his last race at Keeneland in winning the Lexington Stakes on Apr. 15. Third in the M/L is #1 National Treasure at 4-1. This is a Bob Baffert trained horse after Baffert was banned from running any horses in the Kentucky Derby. The Handicap Wizard has National Treasure as its second selection with a total win probability of 17.92% or about 5-1 fair value. National Treasure finished fourth recently in the Santa Anita Derby, ending behind Practical Move, Mandarin Hero and Skinner. In other words, National Treasure is not even the best horse to come out of Santa Anita. National Treasure has high projections in E1 and E2 of 83.5% and 28.9%, which makes him the speed in the race. What is unusual about National Treasure’s numbers is his high COMP value of 61.4%, meaning that his individual speed components in E1, E2 and LP compare very well in the aggregate to the other horses in the simulation. COMP is typically correlated with SPD, but Mage has the superior SPD projection in this field. The fourth selection according to the program is #5 Red Route One with a total win probability of 13.32% or about 8-1 fair value. He is 10-1 on the M/L. Red Route One projects in the top three horses in final speed at 18.5%-win probability. By that metric his fair value drops down as low as 5-1, and his late pace projects strongest at 38.1% win probability. Red Route One won his last race, a $200K stakes race at Oaklawn at 1 1/16 mi. In the final analysis, Mage looks like he can win this second leg of the Triple Crown, with him being the class in the race, as evidenced by his 53.4% Win Percentage in this field. His odds likely will move to even, as the public overbets the favorite. However, neither First Mission or even Red Route One should be discounted. First Mission is Brad Cox trained horse, who showed a good late kick in the Lexington. Red Route One is another closer himself. The final selections are #3 Mage, #1 National Treasure, #8 First Mission and #5 Red Route One.         

The Handicap Wizard had a nice result today in the 7th race at Pimlico, an $8K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year olds. The program had #3 Savoy as its first selection with a total winning probability of 26.08%, translating to a fair value of about 3-1. The horse settled at 8-1. The main reason the program favored the horse is because of its winning percentage of 37%, which put it at about 2-1 fair value. The horse was fairly risky with a Coefficient of Variance at 18.40%, which the handicapper should take into account. In the race, Savoy took the lead out of the far turn and held off a late charging #7 Rookie Salsa at the wire. Savoy paid $19.80 for the win. Even with a risky horse, the result attests to the soundness of the algorithm.

At 15-1, #8 Mage pulled off the upset yesterday in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Second was #3 Two Phil’s at 9-1, who had led the race coming into the stretch but was overtaken by Mage with about a sixteenth left to go. #14 Angel of Empire (4-1) stormed up late for third. Looking at the program’s projections after the scratches, the race went largely the way the Handicap Wizard predicted with #3 Two Phil’s and #14 Angel of Empire as the first and second selections coming in second and third in the race. There’s was not much evidence by way of statistics to suggest that Mage had a legitimate shot in the race except for the COMP value of 10.1%, meaning that Mage’s fair value was a best 9-1. His total win probability of 4.44% put him at 19-1 fair value. However, Mage came in second in the Florida Derby, losing to Forte only by a length. After that important prep race, it was conceivable that Mage could hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. What was notable about the way Mage ran in the Florida Derby was that he knew when to make his move around the far turn, whose acceleration catapulted him into the lead before Forte finally caught him before the wire. This handicapper ended up taking Mage, along with Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire. Those three horses (8-3-14) paid $491.18 in the tri-fecta. Mage paid $32.42 for the win and Two Phil’s $10.44 for the place. To see the image in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the “full-size” link in the center.