Today at Churchill Downs in the $3 mil. G1 Kentucky Derby, run at 1 ¼ mi. for three-year olds on the dirt. In the field are the best horses from this year’s three-year old crop, including Florda Derby winner #15 Forte at 3-1 on the M/L. Another is #5 Tapit Trice, who has the second lowest odds on the M/L at 5-1 as the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April. There is also #14 Angel of Empire at 8-1 on the M/L, who was the winner of the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star Stakes. The program interestingly is favoring #2 Two Phils with a 13.69% total win probability, which would put his fair value in the 7-1 range. He is at 12-1 on the M/L. The program projects him as third best in terms of final speed after recording the best final speed figure in the field at 107 his last time out in the Jeff Ruby Stakes in March, which he won. The Handicap Wizard sees Two Phil’s as the main speed in the race, with the horse projecting at 17% win probability for E1 and 46% win probability for E2. What is notable about Two Phil’s is his 30.4% COMP value, which shows that his component speed figures (i.e. E1, E2 and LP) project strongly in the aggregate. According to that COMP, Two Phil’s fair value is around 2-1, which would give him a lot of value in this race at 12-1 on the M/L/ On the other hand, Two Phil’s has not been in the kind of major graded stakes races compared to some of the other horses, having a Win Percentage of just 3.8%. On the basis of Two Phil’s money wins, his odds should be 20-1 or more. #14 Angel of Empire is the second selection with a total win probability of 12.78%, which translates to about 8-1. Angel of Empire projects highest in final speed at 21.9% (4-1 equivalent) but is risky with a 14.89% CV value. The range of Angel of Empires speed figures is between 69 and 101, but he is currently in peak form going off his last race. Angel of Empire’s Win Percentage is double that of Two Phil’s at 7.6%, meaning the horse has won to twice the degree as Two Phil’s has in terms of competition. Third is #10 Practical Move at 11.68%, translating to 9-1 in odds versus his 10-1 price on the M/L. The horse projects well in SPD at 20.66% win estimate (4-1 equivalent) and 27.7% in LP (3-1 equivalent). Compared to his speed projections, he final and late speed is being discounted while he has a fairly strong COMP at 18% (5-1). The fourth selection is #1 Forte with a 9.69% total win probability. Forte is the class in the field with a win percentage of 15.5%, equating to 6-1 odds versus his 3-1 price on the M/L. The odds makers are putting on premium on Forte’s class in his having won the Florida prep races but are discounting Two Phil’s and Practical Move’s speed in terms of projections. Practical Move has the angle that he won the Santa Anita Derby a month ago on April 8 with a 107 LP figure, the second highest in the field after Angel of Empire with 108. The final selections are #3 Two Phil’s, #14 Angel Of Empire, #10 Practical Move and #15 Forte. My personal choices are Angel of Empire, Two Phil’s, Practical Move and Skinner for the top four.
Projections After Scratches: 3:30 p.m. CST on 5/6
Pro-Handicap Analytics 