By At 15-1, #8 Mage pulled off the upset yesterday in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Second was #3 Two Phil’s at 9-1, who had led the race coming into the stretch but was overtaken by Mage with about a sixteenth left to go. #14 Angel of Empire (4-1) stormed up late for third. Looking at the program’s projections after the scratches, the race went largely the way the Handicap Wizard predicted with #3 Two Phil’s and #14 Angel of Empire as the first and second selections coming in second and third in the race. There’s was not much evidence by way of statistics to suggest that Mage had a legitimate shot in the race except for the COMP value of 10.1%, meaning that Mage’s fair value was a best 9-1. His total win probability of 4.44% put him at 19-1 fair value. However, Mage came in second in the Florida Derby, losing to Forte only by a length. After that important prep race, it was conceivable that Mage could hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. What was notable about the way Mage ran in the Florida Derby was that he knew when to make his move around the far turn, whose acceleration catapulted him into the lead before Forte finally caught him before the wire. This handicapper ended up taking Mage, along with Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire. Those three horses (8-3-14) paid $491.18 in the tri-fecta. Mage paid $32.42 for the win and Two Phil’s $10.44 for the place. To see the image in full-size, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the “full-size” link in the center.
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