Day: May 19, 2023

Here are the projections again after the scratch of #8 First Mission.

Tomorrow is the second of the Triple Crown Races, the $1.5 mil. Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. It’s run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. After his win in the Kentucky Derby, #3 Mage is the M/L favorite at 8/5 odds. That it right about where the Handicap Wizard is valuing him in terms of his total win probability of 38.05%. However, he’s better than 8/5 according to his final speed projection of 47.7% and his stakes weighted Win Percentage at 53.4%, as in 1-1 odds. Next is #8 First Mission, who is 5/2 on the M/L. The Handicap Wizard has him as the third selection and at around 6-1 fair value with a total win probability of 15.53%. First Mission is the only other horse than Mage to have recorded at 103 final speed figure, which he did in his last race at Keeneland in winning the Lexington Stakes on Apr. 15. Third in the M/L is #1 National Treasure at 4-1. This is a Bob Baffert trained horse after Baffert was banned from running any horses in the Kentucky Derby. The Handicap Wizard has National Treasure as its second selection with a total win probability of 17.92% or about 5-1 fair value. National Treasure finished fourth recently in the Santa Anita Derby, ending behind Practical Move, Mandarin Hero and Skinner. In other words, National Treasure is not even the best horse to come out of Santa Anita. National Treasure has high projections in E1 and E2 of 83.5% and 28.9%, which makes him the speed in the race. What is unusual about National Treasure’s numbers is his high COMP value of 61.4%, meaning that his individual speed components in E1, E2 and LP compare very well in the aggregate to the other horses in the simulation. COMP is typically correlated with SPD, but Mage has the superior SPD projection in this field. The fourth selection according to the program is #5 Red Route One with a total win probability of 13.32% or about 8-1 fair value. He is 10-1 on the M/L. Red Route One projects in the top three horses in final speed at 18.5%-win probability. By that metric his fair value drops down as low as 5-1, and his late pace projects strongest at 38.1% win probability. Red Route One won his last race, a $200K stakes race at Oaklawn at 1 1/16 mi. In the final analysis, Mage looks like he can win this second leg of the Triple Crown, with him being the class in the race, as evidenced by his 53.4% Win Percentage in this field. His odds likely will move to even, as the public overbets the favorite. However, neither First Mission or even Red Route One should be discounted. First Mission is Brad Cox trained horse, who showed a good late kick in the Lexington. Red Route One is another closer himself. The final selections are #3 Mage, #1 National Treasure, #8 First Mission and #5 Red Route One.