Day: May 26, 2023

Some people have been scratching their heads after National’s Treasure’s upset in the Preakness. It was a strange race from the late scratch of First Mission to the outcome of the Kentucky Derby winner getting beat. Mage’s final odds of 7-5 might have been telling, where the public discounted him rather than making him an underlay (1 or less), which would have been the norm in a big race like this one. As mentioned in the preview, National Treasure’s COMP value of 72.2% was extraordinary high for a non-favorite. The COMP value, again, is combined win probabilities of the individual speed figures (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) from the simulation. On that basis, he was a 2-5 horse. Instead, he went off at a little less than 3-1. The high COMP value showed National Treasure’s power that he was strong from start to finish. Of course, COMP is not fool-proof but indicates only how the numbers stack up in a rigorous comparison with a one thousand times simulation. The other factor is that Baffert has been very successful in the Preakness. National Treasure gave him his eighth win.