The program had very good results overall last Sat. at Belmont, having winners with its first selection in the 1st, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th races. Excluding the maiden race in the 1st, the program would have had winnings of $32 with its first selections for a net profit of $8 or 33%. Here are the selections and results. The Turf Program was used for the Jaipur in race 9.
Tomorrow is the last leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes. It’s run at 1 ½ mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features the best three-years olds in the country, including Preakness winner #5 National Treasure, Florida Derby winner, #6 Forte, Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #8 Angel of Empire, Keeneland Blue Grass Winner, #2 Tapit Trice, and Peter Pan winner, #3 Archangelo. The program is favoring Forte with a total win probability of 21.87%. So, his fair value is in the 4-1 range but is 5/2 on the M/L. The second selection is Angel of Empire. His total win probability is a little less at 20.92%, again in that 4-1 range versus 7-2 on the M/L. Third is National Treasure with a 13.06% total win probability. He’s a slight underlay at 5-1 on the M/L. Fourth is Arcangelo with a 12.78% total win probability. He is right at fair value at 8-1 on the M/L. One fact worth noting about Arcangel is that he’s sired by Arrogate. Between Forte and Angel of Empire, you have two very good horses. Forte comes in well rested after a 70 day lay-off. The horse was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after incurring a foot injury. In his most recent workout at Belmont, Forte ran 59 seconds over 5f, which is a fairly good time. Forte is the class in the race with a 29.3% adjusted win percentage, giving him a 2-1 fair value according to that metric. He’s undefeated in his last five races. Forte has the second highest SPD projection at 22.9% win probability and the highest COMP at 38.5%. With fairly low risk at 6.51% CV, Forte’s COMP value indicates some substantial strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Angel of Empire has the highest SPD projection at 36.5% but that comes with the caveat that he is also high risk with a CV value of 14.16%. In this case, I don’t think that the CV value is telling because the horse has been in peak form over his last two races after getting off to a slow start in his career. In other words, Angel of Empire’s risk is due to his progress and not due to major inconsistency in his races. The COMP value is a bit weak at 10.5%, and the horse is not showing a lot late speed according to his projection. National Treasure has some things to like about him, like his 20% COMP and Win Percentage and his low risk at 3.93% CV. Archangelo has the third highest final speed estimate at 18.6% and highest LP value at 57.1%. If there is a Cinderella Story (out of nowhere!) in this race it is Arcangelo. The one detracting factor for Arcangelo is his low win percentage at only 3.7%, but he did win a G3 in his last race in the Peter Pan. The horses in this race will be much tougher. The final selections are #6 Forte, #8 Angel of Empire, #4 National Empire and #3 Arcangelo. To see the sheet in high resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom left. Then scroll down and click on the link “View Full-Size” in the center.
The program had an excellent result in the 7th race today at Gulfstream, a $20K claiming race at 5.5f for three-year old fillies and mares, in getting the exacta order correct. The first selection was #6 Raptuous, who had a total win probability of 28.33% versus final odds of 5/2. The horse was even to a slight overlay at that price. The odds had been as high as 7-2 shortly before the start. Raptuous had both the highest win percentage at 37.2% and the highest SPD projection at 29.3%. The horse also had the highest LP at 45.3%, which was the difference in the race. Raptuous came from off the lead to overtake #7 Big Band Lizziann down the stretch. The $2 exacta paid $41.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 