Tomorrow is the last leg of the Triple Crown, the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes. It’s run at 1 ½ mile on the dirt for three year olds. The race features the best three-years olds in the country, including Preakness winner #5 National Treasure, Florida Derby winner, #6 Forte, Arkansas Derby winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, #8 Angel of Empire, Keeneland Blue Grass Winner, #2 Tapit Trice, and Peter Pan winner, #3 Archangelo. The program is favoring Forte with a total win probability of 21.87%. So, his fair value is in the 4-1 range but is 5/2 on the M/L. The second selection is Angel of Empire. His total win probability is a little less at 20.92%, again in that 4-1 range versus 7-2 on the M/L. Third is National Treasure with a 13.06% total win probability. He’s a slight underlay at 5-1 on the M/L. Fourth is Arcangelo with a 12.78% total win probability. He is right at fair value at 8-1 on the M/L. One fact worth noting about Arcangel is that he’s sired by Arrogate. Between Forte and Angel of Empire, you have two very good horses. Forte comes in well rested after a 70 day lay-off. The horse was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after incurring a foot injury. In his most recent workout at Belmont, Forte ran 59 seconds over 5f, which is a fairly good time. Forte is the class in the race with a 29.3% adjusted win percentage, giving him a 2-1 fair value according to that metric. He’s undefeated in his last five races. Forte has the second highest SPD projection at 22.9% win probability and the highest COMP at 38.5%. With fairly low risk at 6.51% CV, Forte’s COMP value indicates some substantial strength in his components in the aggregate according to the simulation. Angel of Empire has the highest SPD projection at 36.5% but that comes with the caveat that he is also high risk with a CV value of 14.16%. In this case, I don’t think that the CV value is telling because the horse has been in peak form over his last two races after getting off to a slow start in his career. In other words, Angel of Empire’s risk is due to his progress and not due to major inconsistency in his races. The COMP value is a bit weak at 10.5%, and the horse is not showing a lot late speed according to his projection. National Treasure has some things to like about him, like his 20% COMP and Win Percentage and his low risk at 3.93% CV. Archangelo has the third highest final speed estimate at 18.6% and highest LP value at 57.1%. If there is a Cinderella Story (out of nowhere!) in this race it is Arcangelo. The one detracting factor for Arcangelo is his low win percentage at only 3.7%, but he did win a G3 in his last race in the Peter Pan. The horses in this race will be much tougher. The final selections are #6 Forte, #8 Angel of Empire, #4 National Empire and #3 Arcangelo. To see the sheet in high resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom left. Then scroll down and click on the link “View Full-Size” in the center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 