On Saturday is the $1.25 G1 Travers Stakes at Saratoga, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features #1 Forte, winner of the Jim Dandy Stakes in his last start, #2 Arcangelo, winner of the Belmont Stakes, and #4 Mage, winner of the Kentucky Derby. The model is favoring #1 Forte, who projects best in terms of final speed with a 41.0% win estimate and has the 2nd highest in win percentage at 23.08%. Forte’s total win probability is 30.86%, which would make him an underlay at 7-5 on the M/L. The second selection is #2 Arcangelo, who is just below Forte in final speed at 39.2% and has a win percentage of 13.8%. His total win probability of 21.05% makes Arcangelo, too, an underlay at 5/2. The third selection is #6 Disarm with a total win probability of 16.40%, which would make his fair value 6-1 compared to 8-1 on the money line. Fourth is #4 Mage with a 14.94% total win probability. Mage has the highest win percentage in the field at 29.3% because of his Kentucky Derby win but projects poorly against the field with final speed of just 0.4%. It may be that the horse has already peaked after coming in second and third in his last two races. The final selections are #1 Forte, #2 Arcangelo, #6 Disarm and # 4 Mage.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 