Month: September 2023

The program had an excellent result today in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, having the correct order of the exacta with its first two selections in #3 Saudi Crown and #2 Reincarnate. As discussed in the preview, Saudi Crown projected very strongly in this field and it seemed odd that #11 Reincarnate was the M/L favorite without the numbers backing him. Saudi Crown went off as the 1-1 favorite, which after conversion was very close to his total win probability of 42.62% (7-5 equivalent). The $2 exacta paid $28.60. The probability that the program had this exacta order correct was only about 7%.

Today is the G1 $1 mil. Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features #11 Reincarnate, winner of Los Alamitos Derby in July and the Sham Stakes back in Jan. , as well as #3 Saudi Crown, who placed second in the Jim Dandy Stakes and in the Dwyer Stakes in July. The program is favoring Saudi Crown with a total win probability of 42.64%, making him an overlay compared to the M/L of 7-2. Saudi Crown projects first in final speed with a 71.6% win estimate and has the highest win percentage in the field at 18.7%. Dreamlike is the second selection with a total win probability of 10.24% compared to the M/L of 10-1. Third is #11 Reincarnate, who is the M/L favorite at 3-1 in spite of having a total win probability of just 8.81%. Based on the data, it is hard to justify Reincarnate’s favored status other than he is trained by Bob Baffert and won his last start at Los Alamitos, even though the Derby was only a G3 race.

The Grey program had a good result yesterday in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $20K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The first selection was #2 Lord Eddard Stark with a total win probability of 20.05% versus final odds of 5-2. At that price that horse was an underlay according to the ROI analysis. Even though the horse won, taking underlays or negative ROI horses is a losing strategy over time. It’s better then to wait for more favorable odds.

The program had the winner in the G1 Pacific Classic today at Del Mar with its first selection in #9 Arabian Knight, who bested the Haskell Winner, #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, in a rematch. Confirming that he was the class in the race with a 23.5% win percentage, Arabian Knight went wire to wire in the win. The program also had the winner with its first selection in the 8th in the Torrey Pines with #10 Ceiling Crusher at 2-1, who paid $6.80. In the Green Flash Handicap in the 9th on turf, the Turf program had the winner with its second selection in #8 Motorious at 5-2. Finally, the Turf program had the winner in the G2 Del Mar Handicap in the 11th with #10 Gold Phoenix, who was the class in the race with a 34.5% win percentage (about 2-1 fair value). The race had an eleven-horse field.

Race 10 – G1 Pacific Classic

Race 8 – G3 Torrey Pines

Race 9 – G3 Green Flash Handicap

Race 11 – G2 Del Mar Handicap

There was an excellent showing by a young horse in the 3rd at Gulfstream, a $40K maiden claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt. #3 Sunshine Frolic won by three lengths in his second start with a final time of 1:43.60. Sired by California Chrome, the horse ran 4f in an impressive 0:45 in a workout on Aug. 27. Sunshine Frolic is a horse to keep an eye on in the future.