Pacific Classic at Del Mar, Sat., Sept. 2

Today at Del Mar is the $1 mil. G1 Pacific Classic, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. The race features #1 Geaux Rocket Ride, winner of the Haskel in July, #9 Arabian Knight, who came in 3rd in the Haskell after winning the Southwest Stakes in Jan., and #3 Stilleto Boy, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap in March. The program is favoring Arabian Knight with a total win probability of 18.68% versus 3-1 on the M/L. Arabian Knight has a tough task in this race after being beaten by Geaux Rocket Ride already, but the former comes in with the highest win percentage overall at 23.5% (about 3-1 fair value). The second selection is Stilleto Boy, who projects first in final speed at 31.2%, although his risk is elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.37%. Having a total win probability of 16.55%, the horse has value at 8-1 on the M/L. Third is Slow Down Andy with a total win probability of 15.22%. Interestingly, Slow Down Andy’s COMP is 31.3%, which would make his fair value about 5-2 on that basis. Fourth is #8 Senor Buscador, who projects 2nd in final speed at 23.5% (4-1 fair value versus M/L of 8-1) but has a win percentage of just 4.5%. Geaux Rocket Ride is the fifth selection with a 12.52% total win probability, who won his last two starts and has won three out of four starts total. The horse’s final speed estimate of only 2.2% undercuts his chances, though on a win percentage basis (19.8%) his fair value is 4-1. It’s worth nothing that Stilleto Boy is back on his home turf in California after having been in the Midwest for his last two races, where he placed 6th in the Stephen Foster and 3rd in the Oaklawn Handicap (lost by a nose). This should be a bettor’s race considering there is no clear favorite.