Day: September 23, 2023

The program had an excellent result today in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, having the correct order of the exacta with its first two selections in #3 Saudi Crown and #2 Reincarnate. As discussed in the preview, Saudi Crown projected very strongly in this field and it seemed odd that #11 Reincarnate was the M/L favorite without the numbers backing him. Saudi Crown went off as the 1-1 favorite, which after conversion was very close to his total win probability of 42.62% (7-5 equivalent). The $2 exacta paid $28.60. The probability that the program had this exacta order correct was only about 7%.

Today is the G1 $1 mil. Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features #11 Reincarnate, winner of Los Alamitos Derby in July and the Sham Stakes back in Jan. , as well as #3 Saudi Crown, who placed second in the Jim Dandy Stakes and in the Dwyer Stakes in July. The program is favoring Saudi Crown with a total win probability of 42.64%, making him an overlay compared to the M/L of 7-2. Saudi Crown projects first in final speed with a 71.6% win estimate and has the highest win percentage in the field at 18.7%. Dreamlike is the second selection with a total win probability of 10.24% compared to the M/L of 10-1. Third is #11 Reincarnate, who is the M/L favorite at 3-1 in spite of having a total win probability of just 8.81%. Based on the data, it is hard to justify Reincarnate’s favored status other than he is trained by Bob Baffert and won his last start at Los Alamitos, even though the Derby was only a G3 race.