There were a couple of instructive races in the Wednesday opener today at Tampa Bay Downs. In the 9th race, a $16K claiming race for three-year-olds at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the program and odds favorite was #8 Justintimeforwine at 5-2 . The horse had a total probability of 25.74%, making it a slight underlay. The interesting horse in this race, however, was the third selection, #7 Fly Nighty, with a total probability of 18.2% (about 4-1 equivalent) compared to final odds of 7-1. Fly Nightly projected first in the simulation in final speed with a 30.8% win estimate (about 2-1 equivalent) while having a fairly low Coefficient of Variance of 5.42%. As has been said many times in previous posts, taking into the consideration the risk or variability of the horse is very important. Because of Fly Nightly’s low CV, its projection in the simulation is more reliable. Along with projecting first in final speed, the horse had the second highest win percentage at 17.3% (little more than 4-1 equivalent). So on the basis of both its final speed projection and win percentage, Fly Nightly had value at anything above 4-1, and it went off 7-1. In the race, the horse surged around the far turn and overtook Justintimeforwine down the stretch. This is precisely how the Handicap Wizard can be used in finding solid horses with value who have realistic chances of winning. In Fly Nightly’s case, this was his fifth straight win, showing that pool pricing is not always efficient. The results of the race were generated using the Turf Program. To see the main image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right. Then click on full size link in the bottom center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 