By Tomorrow at the G3 $250k Withers Stakes at Aqueduct, run at 1 1/8 mile on the dirt for three-year olds. The Handicap Wizard Grey Program is projecting #5 Seminole Chief as its first selection with a total win probability of 26.65% (3-1 fair value), who is at 10-1 on the M/L. It is surprising that Seminole Chief would have such a high M/L considering it is the class in the field with a winning percentage of 24.2% (3-1 fair value). However, Seminole Chief has a somewhat high Coefficient of Variance on its final speed figures of 10.24%. Interestingly, the horse has the high COMP figure of 48.4% indicating that the horse has (2-1) strength on a component level in the aggregate according to the simulation. Second is #4 El Grande O with a total win probability of 18.3% versus 5/2 on the M/L, making the horse an underlay. The horse has the highest final speed estimate according to the simulation at 31.7% (2-1 equivalent) but is third in win percentage at 17.3%. The third selection is #8 Uncle Heavy with a 17.8% total win probability (4-1 equivalent) versus 10-1 on the M/L. Uncle Heavy has the second highest final speed estimate at 27.3% (3-1 fair value) along with a win percentage of 18.2% (4-1 equivalent). Uncle Heavy is coming off a win after getting the upset in a $200K graded stakes race at Parx in December in the mud. Of the three top selections, Uncle Heavy is showing the most value as a 4-1 projected horse. Even the folks at DRF in their preview of the Withers yesterday said Uncle Heavy has the talent to win the Withers. What’s mystifying in this race is the M/L favorite of #3 Lightline at 8/5 on the M/L when the horse does not have the data in the simulation or the win percentage to support that low M/L. The horse has two second place finishes in $80K and $100K claiming races at Oaklawn and Keeneland in its last two races. In the final analysis, both Seminole Chief and Uncle Charlie are showing value while the M/L favorite in Lightline and #4 El Grande O are projecting as overlays.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 