Day: March 2, 2024

Today is the $400K G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features graded stakes winners #5 Dornoch, who won the Remsen at Aqueduct in December, #7 Locked, who won the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in Nov., and #7 Frankie’s Empire, who won the Swale Stakes at Gulftream in February. The program is favoring #8 Locked as its first selection with a total win probability of 38.45%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-5 versus its M/L of 5/2. Locked projects second in final speed with a 46% win estimate and is in the class in the race with a win percentage adjusted for stakes of 42.4%. The second selection is #1 Speak Easy with a total win probability of 20.39% (7-2 equivalent) compared to its M/L of 9/2. Speak Easy projects first in final speed, albeit with speed figures for only one race, with a 54% win estimate. Speak Easy broke its maiden in late January in a $89K maiden race and has not raced since. The third selection is the M/L favorite #5 Dornoch with a total win probability of 17.89%. Dornoch is the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 75.4% and 42.4% and has the second highest win percentage at 15.3%. In the final analysis, this is a difficult race to handicap because of unseasoned horses and lack of data. While projecting first, Locked is coming off the long layoff after having last run in early Nov. Speak Easy, on the other hand, is a green horse, in having only broken its maiden in late January. Dornoch does not project well in terms of final speed but does project a lot of early speed and should be on the pace. Being the class of the field, Locked should be able to deal with the caliber of horses in the race as a son of Gun Runner, but there are legit challengers in Speak Easy, Dornoch and even #3 Victory Avenue, who recorded a 100 SPD in his first maiden race at Gulfstream at the end of January, in which he came in 2nd. To see the image in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled i in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down slightly and click on the full-size link in the center.