Day: March 7, 2024

The program had a nice result today in the 5th at Gulfstream, a $35K optional claiming race at 1 mi. off the turf for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #2 Tatanka with a total winning probability of 24.20% (3-1 odds) versus 5-1 on the M/L and 4-1 in live odds. Tatanka projected 2nd in final speed with a 27.7% win estimate but first in E1 and E2 at 58.0% and 56.2%. The horse also had COMP value of 32.3% (2-1 equivalent). There were two favorites in the race in #3 Space Launch at 9/5 with a 7.43% total win probability and #10 Tartufo at 5/2 with a 19.77% win probability. In the race, Tatanka broke to an early lead and held on to beat Space Launch, with #10 Tartufo finishing third.

The program had a number of good results today at Tampa, including having winners with its first selection in the first two races. In the first race, a $16K claiming race at 1m 40y for four-year-olds, the program had #4 Star Kanoo as it first selection with a total win probability of 29.60%, translating into odds of roughly 2-1. This was very close to where the horse went off at 5-2 even though it was 6-1 on the M/L. Besides having very high E1 and E2 win estimates of 80.6% and 93.1%, Star Kanoo had a high COMP estimate of 58%, which is the win probability from adding the results of the simulation of E1, E2 and LP together. The COMP value signaled that the horse was strong with its components (4-5 equivalent) in the simulation compared to the other horses. This is how the race played out with Star Kanoo leading early and then running away from the competition down the stretch to get the win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7d11SQrIz4o