Race 1 at Tampa, Sat., March 9

In the first race at Tampa, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/6 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares four-years old and up, there was an amazing result with the program’s second choice of Krabi wiring the field at 37-1. Krabi had a total win probability of 15.86%, equating to theoretical odds of 5-1. Besides having the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 67.7% and 59.5%, Krabi had a 46% COMP value (almost 1-1 equivalent). There were some things not to like about the horse such as its recent form and high Coefficient of Variance of 17.37%, signalling above average risk, but regardless the horse was heavily discounted, even above odds it should have gotten for its win percentage alone, offering huge value. Krabi paid an incredible $77.80 for the win. Again, this race shows how trusting the calculations in the model can pay off handsomely when the odds heavily favor the statistics.