By Today at Tampa Bay is the G3 $400K Tampa Bay Derby, a Kentucky Derby prep race worth 50 pts. for the winner. It is run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features Sam F. Davis Winner, #7 No More Time, and Holy Bull runner-up, #5 Domestic Product. The program has No More Time as its first selection with a total win probability of 31.80%, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1 compared to the M/L of 5-2. No More Time projects first in final speed with a 51.8% win estimate and has the highest win percentage at 18.1%. Second is Domestic Product with a total win probability of 17.86% (9-2 equivalent) versus the M/L of 3-1. Domestic Project projects second in final speed with a 27.7% win estimate (about 3-1) but first in LP at 48.2% after recording a 108 LP in the Holy Bull. Third is #9 Grand Mo the First with a 17.09% win probability (9-2 equivalent) versus the M-L of 10-1. In the final analysis, the first two selections in No More Time and Domestic Product largely follow the M/L ordering and pricing as the top two horses. Grand Mo the First has had two third place finishes in stakes races in the Swale and Zuma Beach and will need to step it up against this field. Of the green runners, #4 Good Money is drawing some interest at 6-1 on the M/L as a son of Good Magic, with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding and Chad Brown as the trainer. He is lightly raced with a win in his only start in a $53K maiden race at 7f on the dirt at Tampa in late January. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the line for full-size image in the center.
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