By The Grey program had a nice result in the 5th race at Gulfstream, a $35K maiden race at 1 mi. off the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. The first selection was #8 Mobay Princess with a total win probability of 27.77% (5-2 equivalent theoretical odds) versus odds of 11-1. The second selection was #4 Sizzle with a 22% total win probability (7-2 equivalent) versus odds of 7-2. In the race, Mobay Princess led much of the way before she was overtaken down the stretch by Sizzle, thanks to a strong late kick (100% LP value). The $1 exacta paid $41.60. Even though there was not a lot of data to go off, Mobay Princess was still greatly mispriced, going off at 11-1 with a 5-2 theoretical value. The horse projected 1st in final speed with a 37.2% winning estimate in the simulation (8-5 equivalent) and was tied for having the second high win percentage at 19.5% (4-1 equivalent). The race shows the value of having an accurate handicapping program like Pro-Handicap Wizard that identified Mobay Princess as a strong horse in the field despite having high odds of 11-1.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 