By Today at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana is another Kentucky Derby prep race in the $1 mil. Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features Lecomte Winner and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #12 Track Phantom, Rebel Stakes runner-up, #8 Common Defense, and Smarty Jones Winner, #5 Catching Freedom. The program is favoring #6 Common Defense with a total win probability of 24.11% (6-1 on the M/L), translating to theoretical odds of 3-1. #6 Common Defense projects first in final speed with a 37.5% win estimate along with having the highest win percentage at 20.2%. The second selection is Track Phantom at 3-1 on the M/L with a 18.43% total win probability (4-1 theoretical odds), who projects second in final speed with a 28.3% win estimate. Third is #4 Agate Road with a win probability of 11.10%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1, which is exactly where the horse is on the M/L. The race appears to be between Common Defense and Track Phantom, but #7 Honor Marie should not be ignored with the highest LP win estimate of 31.8%, who might be best suited for the 1 3/16 mi. distance. Catching Freedom is also worth considering for finishing right behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star in February. The selections are #6 Common Defense, #12 Track Phantom, #4 Agate Road and #7 Honor Marie. To see the image in full resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i’ in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.
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