Florida Derby Preview for Sat., March 29

On Saturday is the $1 mil. Florida Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features a few graded stakes winners, including Holy Bull winner, #2 Hades, who is undefeated in three starts, BC Juvenile winner, #10 Fierceness, and Swale Stakes Winner, #1 Frankie’s Empire. The program has #10 Fierceness as the favorite with a 33.14% win probability, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1. That compares to 8/5 on the M/L. Fierceness’s career so far has been hit and miss. The horse broke its maiden in its first race while putting up a final speed fig of 101. Next, it had an off-race in the Champaign Stakes only to bounce-back in the BC Juvenile in November in winning it. Consequently, the horse has high risk, as indicated in his Coefficient of Variance of 16.26%—a high value for any favorite. The second selection is #2 Hades with a 13.59% total win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 7-2 on the M/L. Hades projects second in final speed behind Fierceness at 24.1% win probability (3-1 equivalent) and has a win percentage of 10%. Third is #4 Grand Mo the first with a 11.75% total win probability. That translates to theoretical odds of 8-1 compared to 15-1 on the M/L. Fourth is #1 Frankie’s Empire with a 10.84% win probability, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1 versus 12-1 on the M/L. Frankie’s Empire projects third in final speed at 18.4% win probability (5-1 equivalent). This race comes down to whether Fierceness is going to show up and run his race when he has had an erratic history so far in his career after coming in just 3rd in the Holy Bull as a heavy favorite in that race. Hades, on the other hand, has done no wrong in three starts, winning all three, including the Holy Bull at Gulfstream his last time out in early February. Both Hades and Fierceness have the same amount of days since their last race at 56. Grand Mo the First may be the sleeper in this race after losing to Domestic Product in the Tampa Bay Derby in early March by a head. He showed high late speed with a LP figure of 122 in a race that had no pace. As a late runner, he may be in a good position in this race in view of its 1 1/8 mi. distance. In the final analysis, Hades seems to be a better choice over Fierceness not only because he’s undefeated, but also because he’s won all three races at Gulfstream. Grand Mo the First could be a threat down the stretch with his late kick, even though Hades is no slouch, putting up a 106 LP value in the Holy Bull in beating Domestic Product by two lengths. Given that both Fierceness and Hades are projecting as underlays compared to the M/L, Grand Mo the First deserves a look with theoretical odds of 8-1 compared to the M/L of 15-1. The one horse whose statistics do not justify its M/L price of 3-1 is #9 Conquest Warrior. However, the horse has won its last two starts, with the latter at the $75K level at a time of 1:50² over 1 1/8 mi. Conquest Warrior is the only horse who has run at the 1 1/8 mi.