Month: May 2024

One final race worth mentioning today was the 10th race at Belmont at the Big A, an $80K allowance race at 6f on the turf for three-year-olds and up. While the Turf Program did not have the winner with its first selection, it did have the three tri-fecta horses among its top three selections, which were #11 Russi at 8-5, #7 Li’Lang at 8-1 and #4 Power Attack at 7-1. Power Attack was the winner with theoretical odds of 5-1. The odds favorite was #5 Big Prankster at 8-5, who was the program’s 5th selection. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $78.75. This result shows once again the value of the Turf Program as a handicapping tool to complement the Grey version for dirt races. For whatever reason, the post positions in the Brisnet digital file did not match the post positions of the horses in the actual race.

Another good result for the Turf Program today was in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, an $80K allowance race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #4 Can’t Fool Me with a total win probability of 20.92%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-2. The horse went off at 11-1. Can’t Fool Me projected first in final speed with 45.5% win estimate and had the highest LP estimate in the field at 41.5%. In the race, Can’t Fool Me was six wide coming out of the far turn and then accelerated down the stretch to nearly get an upset win over #5 Succulent, who also ran a big race at 12-1. Even with the place, Can’t Fool Me paid $13.40.

https://videopress.com/v/tRBOFVGZ?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

The program had another nice result today at Belmont at the Big A in the 9th race, a $12,500 claiming race a 1 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #4 Valencia Day with a total win probability of 23.96%, equating to theoretical odds of about 3-1 versus final odds of 6-1. The horse was the class in the race with a 27.3% win probability (again about 3-1 equivalent) while also having fairly strong E1 and E2 estimates and the highest COMP value in the field at 59.3%. The COMP value suggested the horse had 4-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate. In the race, #4 Valencia Day took charge down the final stretch and never looked back. This is exactly the type of setup a handicapper should be looking for with a first selection that is an overlay. Valencia Day paid $14.20 with the win.

The Turf program had the winner with its first selection in the one graded stakes races at Belmont at the Big A today in the $200K Pennine Ridge in the 7th race, run at 1 1/8 mi on the turf for three-year- olds. #2 Legend of Time had a total win probability of 56.86%, translating into theoretical odds of 4/5. That is exactly where the horse went off on (4/5). In the race, Legend of Time made a ground saving trip at the read until the far turn, when he started making his move on the two path. Still caught in traffic upon entering the final stretch, the horse finally found a seam and was able to turn it to just in time before the wire to beat #1 White Palomino, who was the third selection at 9-2. Keep in mind that there was little data in this race and that the program is most accurate when there is a lot of data.

After the scratch of Muth, the Handicap Wizard had a very good result in the Preakness, with its third and 1st selections of #6 Seize the Gray and #5 Mystik Dan finishing first and second. The program also had the superfecta horses with its first four selections in Seize the Gray, Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold. The $2 exacta paid $119.40 and the $0.10 superfecta (2.40 superfecta box) paid $74.90. Seize the Gray’s speed could be seen in his high E1 and E2 values of 64.3% and 17.4%, where he took advantage of the muddy track to get out to a comfortable lead and went wire to wire. With the first value, the program was predicting with 3-5 odds confidence that Seize the Gray would be in the lead after the opening quarter mile and Imagination second, and that did happen. Seize the Gray’s final odds of 9-1 were close to the program’s theoretical odds for him of 8-1 while Mystik Dan’s final odds were the same as the program’s theoretical odds of 2-1.