Here are the updated projections for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill after the scratch of #9 Encino. The win probability of #17 Fierceness is up to 20.96%, corresponding to theoretical odds of 7-2. The 7-2 theoretical odds matches exactly where Fierceness is this morning with the live odds. It’s worth noting that the Japanese Horse, #11, Forever Young is down to 6-1 with its odds. 6-1 is where the horse would be on a win percentage basis adjusted for stakes, which is all the data there is on him.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 