Peter Pan at Belmont at the “A”, Sat., May 11

There are several graded stakes races today before the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico next weekend. At Belmont at the Big “A’ is the G3 $200K Peter Pan Stakes today, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The program is favoring #4 Lonesome Boy with a total probability of 21.08%, translating in to theoretical odds of 7-2. This compares to 20-1 on the M/L, so there is definitely value in Lonesome Boy today as the first selection. The horse finished fourth in this last race in the Wood Memorial, but won a $75K graded stakes at Parx before that at 1m70 in the mud. Lonesome Boy has a few things going for him, including projecting first in E1 and E2 at 79.3% win estimate and 46.9%. He projects second in final speed at 23.4% but has the highest COMP value at 56.9%, meaning the horse projects well against the other horses on a component level in the aggregate. However, Lonesome Boy’s Coefficient of Variance is elevated at 10.98%. As a general rule, any CV value above 10% would be considered on the high side. It’s worth noting that the horse had odds of 80-1 in the Wood Memorial and still finished fourth. His form continues to improve. The second selection is #1 Protective with a total probability of 20.90%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2 as well. Protective projects first in final speed at 28.9% and has the highest LP value at 64.4%. Protective has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field with 100%, which he did finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial. The third selection is #5 Tuscan Gold with a win probability of 14.54%, equating to theoretical odds of 6-1. The M/L favorite is #3 The Wine Steward with a total win probability of 12.27, giving me theoretical odds of 7-1. The Wine Steward has finished first and second in all of his races, including second place finish in the Lexington at Keeneland in mid April. The horse has the highest win percentage in the field at 26.1%, which would be about 3-1 fair value compared to 5-2 on the M/L. This is a race where one has to respect the Wine Steward’s win percentage, who should figure in an exacta, but there is significant value in Lonesome Boy, who showed he can compete at the 1/8 but will have to be sharp in this race.