Day: May 15, 2024

On Saturday is the second leg of the Triple Crown—the $2 mil G1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico—run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features a stellar field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #5 Mystik Dan, Arkansas Derby winner, #4 Muth, Louisiana Derby winner, #3 Catching Freedom and Pat Day Mile winner, #6 Seize the Grey. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #5 Mystik Dan as its first selection with a total win probability of 27.50%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2. This is exactly where Mystik Dan’s is on the M/L. The horse projects first in final speed with a 29.2% win estimate while also having the highest win percentage in the field at 38.2%, thanks to his win in the $5 mil. Kentucky Derby. Second is Bob Baffert trained #4 Muth with a total win probability of 19.53%, equating to theoretical odds of 4/1 (8/5 on the M/L). Muth projects third in final speed with a 19.9% win estimate (4-1 equivalent) and has the second highest win percentage at 21.8% (7-2 equivalent). Third is #8 Tuscan Gold with a total win probability of 13.58%, translating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 8-1 on the M/L. Tuscan Gold projects 2nd in final speed with a 24.5% win estimate (3-1 equivalent). Fourth is #6 Seize the Grey with a 10.72% total win probability (9-1 equivalent) compared to 15-1 on the M/L. The race looks like it will be a close contest between the two favorites in Mystik Dan and Muth. Muth is favored on the M/L at 8/5 for having beaten Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby in late March. Mystik Dan finished 3rd in that race and six lengths behind Muth. Muth comes into Preakness rested after having been off for 49 days whereas Mystik Dan is coming off a short two-week layoff after winning the Kentucky Derby. Consequently, Mystik Dan is in a bit of tough spot here against his rival. As a son of Good Magic, Muth has won his last two races, both graded stakes with the last one being the G1 Arkansas Derby. The third and fifth selections, Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom, finished 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the Louisiana Derby. In that race, Catching Freedom came on strong down the stretch to beat Tuscan Gold by 1 3/4 lengths. To see the image below in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” on the bottom-right. Then scroll down and click on the link in the center.