Day: May 18, 2024

After the scratch of Muth, the Handicap Wizard had a very good result in the Preakness, with its third and 1st selections of #6 Seize the Gray and #5 Mystik Dan finishing first and second. The program also had the superfecta horses with its first four selections in Seize the Gray, Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold. The $2 exacta paid $119.40 and the $0.10 superfecta (2.40 superfecta box) paid $74.90. Seize the Gray’s speed could be seen in his high E1 and E2 values of 64.3% and 17.4%, where he took advantage of the muddy track to get out to a comfortable lead and went wire to wire. With the first value, the program was predicting with 3-5 odds confidence that Seize the Gray would be in the lead after the opening quarter mile and Imagination second, and that did happen. Seize the Gray’s final odds of 9-1 were close to the program’s theoretical odds for him of 8-1 while Mystik Dan’s final odds were the same as the program’s theoretical odds of 2-1.

The Turf Program has done well today, this time in the 9th race at Pimlico, the $100K JW Murphy Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s first two selections were #10 Abrumar and #12 Fulmineo. Abrumar was the class in the race with the highest win percentage at 33.6% while Fulmineo projected 1st in final speed with a 57.2% win estimate (4-5 equivalent) compared to final odds of 2-1. Fulmineo was the superior horse here based on his final speed projection and was priced at a discount on that basis. Giving confidence in the project was Fulmineo’s low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of only 6.2%. This race shows why the order ranking in the program must not always be taken literally with selections. The handicapper has to be able to use his judgment to step out of the box and evaluate the horses sometimes on an individual metric basis like SPD to be successful.

The Turf Program had another good result in the 5th race at Gulfstream, the $95K Monroe Stakes, which was run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies and mares. The program had the exacta horses among its top three selections of #7 Thirty Thou Kevin, #3 Ocean Club and #6 Towser. Thirty Thou Kevin and Ocean Club led until the far turn, when Ocean Club broke ahead. He went on to win over Towser at 18-1, who ran a big race to come in second.

The Turf Program had a nice result today in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, a $45K optional claiming race at 6f on the turf for three-year olds and up, with its first two selections of #4 Works for Me and #2 Twenty Six Black. These were the exacta horses but in reverse order. In the race, Works for Me gained the lead coming out of the far turn but was overtaken by Twenty Six Black before the wire. The #1 exacta paid $28.80.

Here are the updated projections for the Preakness after the scratch of #4 Muth. There are several things worth paying attention to now. One is Imagination’s 35% COMP value, indicating 2-1 strength for the horse on component level (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) in the aggregate. Imagination’s odds could well fall in the 3-1 to 5-1 range, if not lower. Seize the Grey’s COMP is also relative high at 27.7%, suggesting 3-1 strength. Tuscan Gold with his 26.2% SPD and 18.9% COMP estimates appears to have 3-1 to 4-1 strength with those metrics versus his 8-1 M/L.