By The program had another nice result today at Belmont at the Big A in the 9th race, a $12,500 claiming race a 1 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #4 Valencia Day with a total win probability of 23.96%, equating to theoretical odds of about 3-1 versus final odds of 6-1. The horse was the class in the race with a 27.3% win probability (again about 3-1 equivalent) while also having fairly strong E1 and E2 estimates and the highest COMP value in the field at 59.3%. The COMP value suggested the horse had 4-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate. In the race, #4 Valencia Day took charge down the final stretch and never looked back. This is exactly the type of setup a handicapper should be looking for with a first selection that is an overlay. Valencia Day paid $14.20 with the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 