Month: May 2024

The Turf Program has done well today, this time in the 9th race at Pimlico, the $100K JW Murphy Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program’s first two selections were #10 Abrumar and #12 Fulmineo. Abrumar was the class in the race with the highest win percentage at 33.6% while Fulmineo projected 1st in final speed with a 57.2% win estimate (4-5 equivalent) compared to final odds of 2-1. Fulmineo was the superior horse here based on his final speed projection and was priced at a discount on that basis. Giving confidence in the project was Fulmineo’s low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of only 6.2%. This race shows why the order ranking in the program must not always be taken literally with selections. The handicapper has to be able to use his judgment to step out of the box and evaluate the horses sometimes on an individual metric basis like SPD to be successful.

The Turf Program had another good result in the 5th race at Gulfstream, the $95K Monroe Stakes, which was run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds fillies and mares. The program had the exacta horses among its top three selections of #7 Thirty Thou Kevin, #3 Ocean Club and #6 Towser. Thirty Thou Kevin and Ocean Club led until the far turn, when Ocean Club broke ahead. He went on to win over Towser at 18-1, who ran a big race to come in second.

The Turf Program had a nice result today in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, a $45K optional claiming race at 6f on the turf for three-year olds and up, with its first two selections of #4 Works for Me and #2 Twenty Six Black. These were the exacta horses but in reverse order. In the race, Works for Me gained the lead coming out of the far turn but was overtaken by Twenty Six Black before the wire. The #1 exacta paid $28.80.

Here are the updated projections for the Preakness after the scratch of #4 Muth. There are several things worth paying attention to now. One is Imagination’s 35% COMP value, indicating 2-1 strength for the horse on component level (i.e., E1, E2 and LP) in the aggregate. Imagination’s odds could well fall in the 3-1 to 5-1 range, if not lower. Seize the Grey’s COMP is also relative high at 27.7%, suggesting 3-1 strength. Tuscan Gold with his 26.2% SPD and 18.9% COMP estimates appears to have 3-1 to 4-1 strength with those metrics versus his 8-1 M/L.

On Saturday is the second leg of the Triple Crown—the $2 mil G1 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico—run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The race features a stellar field, including Kentucky Derby winner, #5 Mystik Dan, Arkansas Derby winner, #4 Muth, Louisiana Derby winner, #3 Catching Freedom and Pat Day Mile winner, #6 Seize the Grey. The Handicap Wizard is favoring #5 Mystik Dan as its first selection with a total win probability of 27.50%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2. This is exactly where Mystik Dan’s is on the M/L. The horse projects first in final speed with a 29.2% win estimate while also having the highest win percentage in the field at 38.2%, thanks to his win in the $5 mil. Kentucky Derby. Second is Bob Baffert trained #4 Muth with a total win probability of 19.53%, equating to theoretical odds of 4/1 (8/5 on the M/L). Muth projects third in final speed with a 19.9% win estimate (4-1 equivalent) and has the second highest win percentage at 21.8% (7-2 equivalent). Third is #8 Tuscan Gold with a total win probability of 13.58%, translating to theoretical odds of 6-1 versus 8-1 on the M/L. Tuscan Gold projects 2nd in final speed with a 24.5% win estimate (3-1 equivalent). Fourth is #6 Seize the Grey with a 10.72% total win probability (9-1 equivalent) compared to 15-1 on the M/L. The race looks like it will be a close contest between the two favorites in Mystik Dan and Muth. Muth is favored on the M/L at 8/5 for having beaten Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby in late March. Mystik Dan finished 3rd in that race and six lengths behind Muth. Muth comes into Preakness rested after having been off for 49 days whereas Mystik Dan is coming off a short two-week layoff after winning the Kentucky Derby. Consequently, Mystik Dan is in a bit of tough spot here against his rival. As a son of Good Magic, Muth has won his last two races, both graded stakes with the last one being the G1 Arkansas Derby. The third and fifth selections, Tuscan Gold and Catching Freedom, finished 3rd and 1st, respectively, in the Louisiana Derby. In that race, Catching Freedom came on strong down the stretch to beat Tuscan Gold by 1 3/4 lengths. To see the image below in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” on the bottom-right. Then scroll down and click on the link in the center.