Month: May 2024

The 10th race at Belmont today had another good result for the program. It had the order of the exacta with its 2nd and 3rd selections in #7 Midtownlights at 10-1 and #5 Broderie at 9-2. Midtownlights was the second selection because of its win percentage of 27.8%, the highest in the field. That equates roughly to 3-1 fair value., indicating the horse was priced at a significant discount at 10-1. Often times, classy horses or horses with high win percentages who have fallen out of form tend to bounce back with a strong performance. This is what happened here with Midtownlights. The favorite #2 Pitchclock at 6-5 was a non-factor as a fourth selection.

The program had another good result today in the 4th at Gulfstream, a $6.25K claiming race run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The first selection was #4 Boldness at 2-1 compared to theoretical odds of 5-2. Boldness projected first in final speed at 39.2% and had a high COMP value of 56.5%. The program generally does well with its first selections at Gulfstream, and this race was no exception.

The program had a good result in race for at Churchill today, a $50K allowance race at 6 1/2f for fillies and mares, with its first selection of #1 Greek Heiress at 2-1. That was very close to where the program valued her at 9-5. #6 Yo Puedo showed value at 23-1 versus theoretical odds of 11-1. On a WP basis alone, the horse had 6-1 value. $6 Yo Puedo paid $17.88 for the place.

The program had a nice result today in the 3rd at Belmont at the Big A with its first selection of #1 Russian Realm winning at 8-5, comped to theoretical odds of 2-1. When a horse has a 100% LP win estimate, there is a very good chance he will win regardless of his SPD projection. The program also had the superfecta horses in its first four selections with #3 Romantic Charmer at 21-1, #10 Sorority Prank at 21-1, and #5 Iron Man Ira at 5-2. The $2.40 superfecta box paid $47.50.

Here are the projection for the Man of War at G2 $400K Belmont at the Big “A”, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for four-year olds and up. The program is heavily favoring #9 Nations Pride with a total win probability of 52.58% (about 6-5 equivalent), not far from the M/L of 8-5. With dominating speed projection, the one question is in what form the horse is going to be in after a six month layoff.