Month: May 2024

There are several graded stakes races today before the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico next weekend. At Belmont at the Big “A’ is the G3 $200K Peter Pan Stakes today, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The program is favoring #4 Lonesome Boy with a total probability of 21.08%, translating in to theoretical odds of 7-2. This compares to 20-1 on the M/L, so there is definitely value in Lonesome Boy today as the first selection. The horse finished fourth in this last race in the Wood Memorial, but won a $75K graded stakes at Parx before that at 1m70 in the mud. Lonesome Boy has a few things going for him, including projecting first in E1 and E2 at 79.3% win estimate and 46.9%. He projects second in final speed at 23.4% but has the highest COMP value at 56.9%, meaning the horse projects well against the other horses on a component level in the aggregate. However, Lonesome Boy’s Coefficient of Variance is elevated at 10.98%. As a general rule, any CV value above 10% would be considered on the high side. It’s worth noting that the horse had odds of 80-1 in the Wood Memorial and still finished fourth. His form continues to improve. The second selection is #1 Protective with a total probability of 20.90%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2 as well. Protective projects first in final speed at 28.9% and has the highest LP value at 64.4%. Protective has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field with 100%, which he did finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial. The third selection is #5 Tuscan Gold with a win probability of 14.54%, equating to theoretical odds of 6-1. The M/L favorite is #3 The Wine Steward with a total win probability of 12.27, giving me theoretical odds of 7-1. The Wine Steward has finished first and second in all of his races, including second place finish in the Lexington at Keeneland in mid April. The horse has the highest win percentage in the field at 26.1%, which would be about 3-1 fair value compared to 5-2 on the M/L. This is a race where one has to respect the Wine Steward’s win percentage, who should figure in an exacta, but there is significant value in Lonesome Boy, who showed he can compete at the 1/8 but will have to be sharp in this race.

Here are the updated projections for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill after the scratch of #9 Encino. The win probability of #17 Fierceness is up to 20.96%, corresponding to theoretical odds of 7-2. The 7-2 theoretical odds matches exactly where Fierceness is this morning with the live odds. It’s worth noting that the Japanese Horse, #11, Forever Young is down to 6-1 with its odds. 6-1 is where the horse would be on a win percentage basis adjusted for stakes, which is all the data there is on him.

In the 7th race at Churchill, the G2 $750K Alysheba Stakes, the program had the winner with its first selection of #3 First Mission at 1-1. The horse had a total win probability of 26.41%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-2. The #8 horse T O Saint Denis gave First Mission a scare early on after going out to an early lead, only for First Mission to accelerate down the stretch to win. The program’s second selection, #5 Il Miracolo at 13-1, came in third after finishing with T O Saint Denis at the wire. In the opinion of this handicapper, it was highway robbery that the stewards gave T O Saint Denis the nod for 2nd when Il Miracolo was the rightful second place finisher.

In early action today at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day, the PHW 4.3 Turf Program had the exacta with its first two selections in the $400K Sydney Unbridled Stakes in the 6th, run at 5 1/2 mi. on the turf for three-year fillies and mares, with #2 Ova Charged at 3-5 and #9 Secret Money at 9-1. Though getting off to a slow start, Ova Charged turned it on down the stretch to win by half a length over Secret Money, who had highest win percentage in the field at 29.8%. The $1 ex. paid $11.76.

This Saturday is the $5 mil. Kentucky Derby, run at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year olds. The field features the best three-year olds in the country, including Florida Derby winner, #17 Fierceness, Blue Grass Winner, #2 Sierra Leone, Tampa Bay Derby winner, #15 Domestic Product, Santa Anita Derby winner, #18 Stronghold and Wood Memorial winner, #19 Resilience. The program is favoring #17 Fierceness with a total win probability of 19.75%, translating into theoretical odds of 4-1. Fierceness projects 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 38.7%. However, the horse has elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 13.64%, which is the highest in the field. The second selection is #19 Resilience with a total win probability of 11.29%, equating to theoretical odds of 8-1. Third is #8 Just A Touch with a total win probability of 10.93%. The horse projects first in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 44.3% and 42.4% while having the highest COMP value of 28.0%. Fourth is #15 Domestic Product with a total win probability of 7.46%, translating to theoretical odds of 12-1. In the final analysis, Fierceness appears to have the upper hand in the race due to its highest SPD projection of 38.7%; however, the estimate is less reliable because of the elevated CV value, where Fierceness has high variability in its speed figures, being on one race and off the next. Compared to Fierceness, the second and third selections in Resilience and Just A Touch have much lower win percentages at 3.3% and 5.0%, respectively, even though Resilience finished 1st in the Wood Memorial and Just a Touch second in the Blue Grass Stakes. The horse that is second on the M/L in Sierra Leone has done little wrong in four starts, winning three out of four, including a win in the Blue Grass Stakes; but, statistically, the horse has only a 9.0% SPD win estimate (10-1 equivalent). UAE Derby winner, #11 Forever Young, is the class in the race with a win percentage, adjusted for stakes, of 14.7%. The horse would rank higher, if not for the fact it is a Japanese horse that has raced only overseas and does not have any SPD or other speed data. The horse is undefeated in five starts and recorded a respectable time in the UAE Derby 1:57 and 4 over 1 3/16 mi. Another horse worth mentioning is the Brad Cox trained horse, #4 Catching Freedom, who jumped up in speed in his last race compared to the previous in winning the Louisiana Derby with a final speed figure of 100 and an LP value of 100. The final selections are #17 Fierceness, #19 Resilience, #8 Just A Touch and #15 Domestic Project. There may be changes in the line-up before the race on Saturday, so stay tuned. To see the image in full-resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Then scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.