Month: June 2024

The $1 mil. Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill saw an interesting result today, with the program’s third selection, #7 Kingsbarn at 9-1 (7-1 theoretical odds), getting the upset over #2 First Mission at 4-5 and #9 Skippylongstocking at 4-1. In the race, First Mission broke out to the lead and Skippylongstocking and Kingsbarn stalked from 2nd and 3rd positions. The order stayed this way until after the half mile point when #4 Disarm at 4-1 began to challenge the leaders on the inside. Then Kingsbarn swooped outside around the far turn and catapulted to the lead down the stretch past First Mission. #1 Pyrenees gained late down the middle of the track but ended up a length behind while Skippylongstocking trailed close to finish 3rd. With odds of 9-1 for Kingsbarn and 10-1 for #1 Pyrenees, the $1 exacta paid $85.82. As a third selection, Kingsbarn was an overlay at 9-1 compared to theoretical odds of 7-1, but it would have been taken shrewd handicapping to find Pyrenees too as the second selection. The horse did project strong late speed with a LP win estimate of 54.3% against the field.

Here are the projections for the $1 mil. Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill tonight. The race is run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. It features several top older horses, including the Aysheba and Essex Stakes winner, #2 First Mission, Oaklawn Handicap winner, #9 Skippylongstocking, 2023 Louisiana Derby winner, #7 Kingsbarns, and Travers Stakes runner-up and Matt Winn Stakes winner, #4 Disarm. The program is favoring #2 First Mission as its first selection with a total win probability of 34.80%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-5 versus being 6-5 on the M/L. First Mission projects first in SPD with a 45.6% win estimate (equating to odds of 6-5) after recording a 106 final speed figure in its last race in the G2 Alysheba at Churchill in May. The other serious contenders are Skippylongstocking, who has won his last two races, and Disarm, who won an $80K optional claiming race at Churchill in mid May. Before that, Disarm last raced in the G1 Travers at Saratoga in Aug. 2023, in which he finished in second by a length.

For those wondering how the program performs on an entire card, here are the results today at Gulfstream where the program had winners with its first or second selections. Its first selections won in race 2, race 3, race 4, race 5 and race 7 while its second selection won in race 6. With first selections the using $2 wagers was +35.0% (($24.40-18)/18)). The program has generally performed well at Gulfstream because of the generally higher quality and lower risk of horses. Also significant is that there is more complete PP data on the horses at Gulfstream than not. All of today’s races were on dirt.

Race 2 – $25K MC at 1m70 (1st Selection Winner)

Race 3 – $25K OC at 6f (1st Selection Winner)

Race 4 – $16K C at 5.5f (1st Selection Winner)

Race 5 – $16K C at 1m70 (1st Selection Winner)

Race 6 – $25K ALW at 5.5f (2nd Selection Winner)

Race 7 $16K OC at 1m70 (1st Selection Winner)

Race 9 $50K OC at 1 1/16 mi (2nd Selection Winner)

Race 6 at Gulfstream today was one that illustrates well the strengths of the Handicap Wizard program. It was a $16K optional claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The first selection was #5 Megan Makin Money at 6-5, who had a total win probability of 29.96%, translating to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 68% (3-5 odds) and second in LP with a 34.2% win estimate. Second was #2 Chloe’s Toy at 7-2. The horse had a total win probability of 25.01%, which is 3-1 in odds. Chloe’s Toy had the highest projections for E1 and E2 with win estimates of 47.8% and 84.3% as well as the highest COMP value of 75.4%. The COMP value again is the results of the simulations for E1, E2 and LP added together, indicating the projected strength of the horse on a component level. Third was #1 Hits Different at 3-1, who had a total win probability of 16.32%, which convert to theoretical odds of 5-1. Looking at the numbers together, both Megan Makin Money and Hits Different were underlays while Chloe’s Toy was the overlay. Most importantly, Chloe’s Toy had the speed profile with dominant early speed projects that matched the 5 1/2 f distance of the sprint and had a blowout COMP number of 75.4%., translating to odds of about 2-5. The horse’s variance in performance given in the CV value was also fairly low at 6.66%. In the race, Megan Makin Money broke to the lead and then was challenged to the inside by Chloe’s Toy coming around the far turn. Chloe’s Toy took the lead down the stretch, holding off a late charging Hits Different. This race went as expected according to the projections, and the handicapper was able to select the horse in Chloe’s Toy that was best suited to the distance while being an overlay. The top three selections in the program were also the horses in the tri-fecta.

The Turf Program saw a predictable result in the 10th at Belmont at the Big A today, a $150K graded stakes race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies. The program’s first selection was #3 Macanga with theoretical odds of 3-1 versus final odds of 2-1. The horse had a 23.52% total win probability with high E1 and E2 win estimates. The fourth selection and favorite was #9 Oversubscribed with theoretical odds of 6-1 compared to final odds of 1-1. The reason for Oversubscribed being a heavy underlay was that it had put up a high LP figure in its most recent race (106), translating into a LP win estimate of 65.4% in the simulation. This superior value, which triggered the FIT2 checkmark, converts into odds of 3-5, which is below the odds Oversubscribed went off at. In the race, Oversubscribed did not disappoint, where he flew down the stretch upon hitting the quarter mile pole to make up a good ten lengths against Macanga to get the win. Macanga had been a solid choice as well, who nearly held on but had to settle for third.

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