The program had the winner with its first selection of #9 Thorpedo Anna in the finale in the 12th at Saratoga today, the G1 $500K Acorn Stakes. It was run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year old fillies and mares. Thorpedo Anna at 3-5 won by five lengths over the third selection, #3 Leslie Rose at 6-1.
There was a good result for the Turf Program in the 5th race at Saratoga today, which was a $62.5K optional claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year olds. The third selection, #4 Boats a Rockin, was an overlay with a total win probability of 18.02%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-2 versus final odds of the 6-1. Shortly before post, the horse had been 8-1. For a 5 1/2 furlong race, Boats a Rockin projected dynamite in E1 with a 67.6% win estimate while also having favorable COMP (20%) and win percentage 14.7% values that made him attractive in this spot, The horse shot out to the lead and never looked back, holding off a late charge by #7 Run Curtis Run at 6-1. Run Curtis Run was the 1st selection and was also an overlay with theoretical odds of 7-2. Boats a Rockin was preferable in this race because of his superior E1 projection, which suited the 5 1/2 furlong distance. Both horses had the same COMP value and final odds of 6-1.
The program had a good result today on the day before the Belmont Stakes in the 2nd race at Saratoga, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/4 on the dirt for three-year olds. As a fourth selection, Perform #8 had favorable metrics, including theoretical odds of 7-1 versus final odds of 18-1. The horse was being discounted in terms of final speed projections, win percentage and COMP with values of 14.8% (6-1 theoretical odds), 9.9% (9-1 theoretical odds) and 29.0% (3-1 theoretical odds), respectively. It’s strength in COMP with a 29.0% value indicated the horse had 3-1 strength on a speed component level in the aggregate while having average risk with a Coefficient of variance of 8.11%. In the race, Perform chased the favorite, #1 Arthur’s Ride, for most of the race but was able to hold on for place. The place paid $13.00. The race shows how value can be found using not only total win probability, but also the individual metrics, which COMP sticking out as relatively strong.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 