By There was a good result for the Turf Program in the 5th race at Saratoga today, which was a $62.5K optional claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year olds. The third selection, #4 Boats a Rockin, was an overlay with a total win probability of 18.02%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-2 versus final odds of the 6-1. Shortly before post, the horse had been 8-1. For a 5 1/2 furlong race, Boats a Rockin projected dynamite in E1 with a 67.6% win estimate while also having favorable COMP (20%) and win percentage 14.7% values that made him attractive in this spot, The horse shot out to the lead and never looked back, holding off a late charge by #7 Run Curtis Run at 6-1. Run Curtis Run was the 1st selection and was also an overlay with theoretical odds of 7-2. Boats a Rockin was preferable in this race because of his superior E1 projection, which suited the 5 1/2 furlong distance. Both horses had the same COMP value and final odds of 6-1.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 