By The program had the exacta horses in the finale at Parx today in race ten, a $25K optional claiming race at 1m70 on the dirt for three-year-olds, though the order was reversed. The first selection was #7 Secured Landing with a total probability of 26.98%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-2 compared to final odds of 4-1. The second selection was #9 Prince Colton with a total win probability of 21.18%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-2 versus final odds of 6-5. Secured Landing projected 1st in SPD with a 40.2% win probability but also had a high Coefficient of Variance at 25.14%, because of a 51 final speed figure the horse recorded in its first race, which was much lower than the figures in his other two races. The pool discounted Secured Landing’s higher risk by assigning the horse higher odds. Prince Colton, on the other hand, had a low CV value of 6.39% while having a SPD win estimate of 29.9% (about 5-2 equivalent) and the highest win percentage of 23.7% (about 3-1). Prince Colton was undoubtedly made an underlay because of his win percentage. In the race, Prince Colton broke to the early lead while Secured Landing stalked from third position to the half mile pole. Secured Landing then accelerated around the far corner and dueled with Prince Colton down the stretch before coming up just short. The race illustrates how close the program is with its projections despite Secured Landing’s close second place finish.
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