Day: June 28, 2024

For those wondering how the program performs on an entire card, here are the results today at Gulfstream where the program had winners with its first or second selections. Its first selections won in race 2, race 3, race 4, race 5 and race 7 while its second selection won in race 6. With first selections the using $2 wagers was +35.0% (($24.40-18)/18)). The program has generally performed well at Gulfstream because of the generally higher quality and lower risk of horses. Also significant is that there is more complete PP data on the horses at Gulfstream than not. All of today’s races were on dirt.

Race 2 – $25K MC at 1m70 (1st Selection Winner)

Race 3 – $25K OC at 6f (1st Selection Winner)

Race 4 – $16K C at 5.5f (1st Selection Winner)

Race 5 – $16K C at 1m70 (1st Selection Winner)

Race 6 – $25K ALW at 5.5f (2nd Selection Winner)

Race 7 $16K OC at 1m70 (1st Selection Winner)

Race 9 $50K OC at 1 1/16 mi (2nd Selection Winner)

Race 6 at Gulfstream today was one that illustrates well the strengths of the Handicap Wizard program. It was a $16K optional claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up. The first selection was #5 Megan Makin Money at 6-5, who had a total win probability of 29.96%, translating to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 68% (3-5 odds) and second in LP with a 34.2% win estimate. Second was #2 Chloe’s Toy at 7-2. The horse had a total win probability of 25.01%, which is 3-1 in odds. Chloe’s Toy had the highest projections for E1 and E2 with win estimates of 47.8% and 84.3% as well as the highest COMP value of 75.4%. The COMP value again is the results of the simulations for E1, E2 and LP added together, indicating the projected strength of the horse on a component level. Third was #1 Hits Different at 3-1, who had a total win probability of 16.32%, which convert to theoretical odds of 5-1. Looking at the numbers together, both Megan Makin Money and Hits Different were underlays while Chloe’s Toy was the overlay. Most importantly, Chloe’s Toy had the speed profile with dominant early speed projects that matched the 5 1/2 f distance of the sprint and had a blowout COMP number of 75.4%., translating to odds of about 2-5. The horse’s variance in performance given in the CV value was also fairly low at 6.66%. In the race, Megan Makin Money broke to the lead and then was challenged to the inside by Chloe’s Toy coming around the far turn. Chloe’s Toy took the lead down the stretch, holding off a late charging Hits Different. This race went as expected according to the projections, and the handicapper was able to select the horse in Chloe’s Toy that was best suited to the distance while being an overlay. The top three selections in the program were also the horses in the tri-fecta.