By Here are the projections for the $1 mil. Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill tonight. The race is run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. It features several top older horses, including the Aysheba and Essex Stakes winner, #2 First Mission, Oaklawn Handicap winner, #9 Skippylongstocking, 2023 Louisiana Derby winner, #7 Kingsbarns, and Travers Stakes runner-up and Matt Winn Stakes winner, #4 Disarm. The program is favoring #2 First Mission as its first selection with a total win probability of 34.80%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-5 versus being 6-5 on the M/L. First Mission projects first in SPD with a 45.6% win estimate (equating to odds of 6-5) after recording a 106 final speed figure in its last race in the G2 Alysheba at Churchill in May. The other serious contenders are Skippylongstocking, who has won his last two races, and Disarm, who won an $80K optional claiming race at Churchill in mid May. Before that, Disarm last raced in the G1 Travers at Saratoga in Aug. 2023, in which he finished in second by a length.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 