Month: July 2024

The Turf Program crushed it in the finale at Saratoga today in the 11th with its first selection of #12 Hush of Storm at 7-1. The horse had a total win probability of 34.51% despite having zero win percentage. Its win probability was all due to its projections, where it projected first in final speed with a 56.5% win estimate, all coming from a single speed figure in the horse’s history. The horse had a 92.1% COMP as well, signaling dominant strength in the horse’s components in the simulation relative to those of the other horses. Hush of a Storm did not disappoint, making a move wide around the far turn and then accelerating down the stretch to win impressively by two lengths. Here using only Turf data in the analysis was advantageous in identifying Hush of a Storm as the best horse in the field from his projected speed. Hush of a Storm paid $16.80 for the win.

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Below are the results using all the data, both dirt and turf. #12 Hush and a Storm is the fourth selection and does not project dominantly like he does in the Turf Model, which uses only turf data. Essentially, the Turf Program solved Hush and a Storm as the best horse on turf from the calculations.

The Turf Program and winners with its first selections in both graded stakes races at Del Mar yesterday. In the 7th race, the $100K Oceanside Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds, the program had #2 Formidable Man as its first selection at 3-1. And in the 9th, the $200K San Clemente Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies, the program had #6 Iscreamuscream as its first selection at 6-5.

$100K Oceanside Stakes

$200K San Clemente Stakes

The Turf program had the winner in the G2 $600K United Nations at Monmouth on Saturday with its first selection of #3 Get Smokin at 9-1. The horse had a total win probability of 34.56% while projecting first in final speed with a win estimate of 56.8% (4-5 strength). Its win probability converted to theoretical odds of 9-5, making the horse a heavy overlay at 9-1. Get Smokin led from start to finish, holding off #1 Grand Sonata at 25-1 at the wire in a photo finish. Get Smokin paid $20.20 for the win.

Tomorrow at Monmouth Park is the $1 mil. Haskell Stakes. It is run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race has a field of eight and features Belmont Stakes winner, #1 Dornoch, Belmont Stakes runner-up, #7 Mindframe, and Florida Derby Winner, Fierceness. The program is favoring #7 Mindframe with a total win probability of 29.17%, translating to theoretical odds of about 5-2. Mindframe projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 57.3% while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.76%. Second is #1 Dornoch with a total win probability of 23.86%, converting to theoretical odds of near 3-1. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a 33.6% win estimate while having higher risk than Mindframe with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.5%. Third is #5 Fierceness with a total win probability of 22.31%, which translates to theoretical odds of 7-2. In spite of the horse being erratic, Fierceness has the highest win percentage at 30.6% due to his wins in the Florida Derby and the BC Juvenile. Fierceness projects first in LP with a win estimate of 88.3% and has a decent COMP value of 37.4% (2-1 odds equivalent). In the final analysis, the program ranks Mindframe a little higher than Dornoch in win probability because of Mindframe’s higher projection in final speed, which is due to the horse being more consistent with his final speed figures at a higher level, whereas Dornoch has shown more variability in his final speed figures. Dornoch had the better trip in the Belmont Stakes along the rail while Mindframe showed himself to be a little green in his third start by veering off line down the stretch. If Mindframe can tighten up his run down the stretch in this race, he should be in a good position to win over Dornoch who statistically is the lesser horse. Whether Fierceness will show up in this race is any one’s guess. In his last race in the Kentucky Derby, he was a non factor, finishing 15th and twenty-four lengths back. His 5-2 odds on the M/L comes all from his win percentage and not his projections. The Handicap Wizard puts Fierceness lower at 7-2 for not projecting in final speed at all because of his disastrous trip in the Kentucky Derby.

The program had the winner with its first selection in the 5th a Saratoga, a $50K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds. #3 Squints at 9-2 was the first selection with a total win probability of 32.85%, translating to theoretical odds of about 2-1. Squints projected first in final speed with a 41.4% win estimate along with having the highest COMP at 55.4% and third highest WP at 17.55%. In the race, Squints with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard came from behind horses in the one paths and made a move to the outside around the far turn before accelerating down the stretch and beating the favorite #7 Iridescent at 6-5 at the wire.