Day: July 12, 2024

The Turf program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Twirling Queen in race 9 at Saratoga—the $150K Corononation Stakes—which was run at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies. Twirling Queen had a total win probability of 40.63%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-5 compared to final odds of 7-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 54.6% win estimate (4-5 odds equivalent) and had the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 100% and 100%, suiting the 5 1/2 f distance. The horse beat the favorite, #6 Ever So Sweet at 2-1, who led early on past the half-mile pole but then faded around the far turn.

The Grey program had a nice result in the 9th race at Gulfstream today, a $16K claiming race off the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. #8 Platinum Rocker was the first selection with a total win probability of 27.09% (5-2 odds equivalent) compared to final odds of 4-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a 50.9% win estimate (1-1 odds equivalent) while having slightly higher risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.54%. In the race, Platinum Rocker led from start to finish, beating two favorites in #10 Bellweather at 7-5 and #7 Miss Holly at 2-1. The finish was exciting with Platinum Rocker digging in against two challengers with less than a length lead for the last sixteenth of the race. Platinum Rocker paid $10.40 for the win.

There was a good opportunity with the Turf Program in race 3 at Saratoga today, a $100K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The program had as its first selection #1a Storm Ready at 4-1 (2-1 theoretical odds) while its second selection was #8 Inherent Promise at 10-1 compared to having theoretical odds of about 5-2. Projecting second in final speed with a 40.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent), a 53.9% COMP and a 16.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent), Inherent Promise was a strong candidate for a win or place wager. In the race, Inherent Promise saved ground by staying on the one path on the back stretch in sixth position until the far turn when the horse gained ground and then found clear running room along the rail. The horse sped up to take second before finishing a length back of the winner, #7 Clever Mischief at 5-1, who was a foreign horse. Inherent Promise paid $10.00 for the place.