Haskell Stakes Preview for Sat., July 20

Tomorrow at Monmouth Park is the $1 mil. Haskell Stakes. It is run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race has a field of eight and features Belmont Stakes winner, #1 Dornoch, Belmont Stakes runner-up, #7 Mindframe, and Florida Derby Winner, Fierceness. The program is favoring #7 Mindframe with a total win probability of 29.17%, translating to theoretical odds of about 5-2. Mindframe projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 57.3% while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 4.76%. Second is #1 Dornoch with a total win probability of 23.86%, converting to theoretical odds of near 3-1. Dornoch projects second in final speed with a 33.6% win estimate while having higher risk than Mindframe with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.5%. Third is #5 Fierceness with a total win probability of 22.31%, which translates to theoretical odds of 7-2. In spite of the horse being erratic, Fierceness has the highest win percentage at 30.6% due to his wins in the Florida Derby and the BC Juvenile. Fierceness projects first in LP with a win estimate of 88.3% and has a decent COMP value of 37.4% (2-1 odds equivalent). In the final analysis, the program ranks Mindframe a little higher than Dornoch in win probability because of Mindframe’s higher projection in final speed, which is due to the horse being more consistent with his final speed figures at a higher level, whereas Dornoch has shown more variability in his final speed figures. Dornoch had the better trip in the Belmont Stakes along the rail while Mindframe showed himself to be a little green in his third start by veering off line down the stretch. If Mindframe can tighten up his run down the stretch in this race, he should be in a good position to win over Dornoch who statistically is the lesser horse. Whether Fierceness will show up in this race is any one’s guess. In his last race in the Kentucky Derby, he was a non factor, finishing 15th and twenty-four lengths back. His 5-2 odds on the M/L comes all from his win percentage and not his projections. The Handicap Wizard puts Fierceness lower at 7-2 for not projecting in final speed at all because of his disastrous trip in the Kentucky Derby.