By The Turf Program crushed it in the finale at Saratoga today in the 11th with its first selection of #12 Hush of Storm at 7-1. The horse had a total win probability of 34.51% despite having zero win percentage. Its win probability was all due to its projections, where it projected first in final speed with a 56.5% win estimate, all coming from a single speed figure in the horse’s history. The horse had a 92.1% COMP as well, signaling dominant strength in the horse’s components in the simulation relative to those of the other horses. Hush of a Storm did not disappoint, making a move wide around the far turn and then accelerating down the stretch to win impressively by two lengths. Here using only Turf data in the analysis was advantageous in identifying Hush of a Storm as the best horse in the field from his projected speed. Hush of a Storm paid $16.80 for the win.
Below are the results using all the data, both dirt and turf. #12 Hush and a Storm is the fourth selection and does not project dominantly like he does in the Turf Model, which uses only turf data. Essentially, the Turf Program solved Hush and a Storm as the best horse on turf from the calculations.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 