The Turf Program had the tri-fecta order correct with its first three selections in the one graded stakes race at Saratoga today, the $150K New York Stallion Series Stakes in the 4th, which was run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The three selections were #5 The Big Torpedo at 1/2, #2 Courtly Banker at 6-1 and #4 Fidelightcayeut.
In the finale at Parx today in the 10th, a $5K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the order of the exacta with its first two selections but in reverse order. Both horses went off at long odds, with the winner, #8 Angry Man having odds of 9-1, and the place horse, #9 Jacohare having odds of 7-1. Angry Man projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 38.9% while Jacohare projected second with 30.7%. This was the order of finish. Jacohare was the higher selection in the program because of his 12.3% win percentage versus 2.3% for Angry Man. The $1 exacta, 8-9, paid $92.60. In some iterations of the program (meaning when you hit the calculate button again), the selection order of the exacta comes up correct with 8-9 on top.
Both the Grey and Turf programs had good results yesterday at Saratoga and Gulfstream. In the 9th race at Saratoga yesterday, a $62.5K optional claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf, the Turf Program revealed some interesting data with the #1 horse, Tidal Wave, who was in post four. As the third selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, Tidal Forces projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 41.7% and 44.4%. The horse also had a COMP of 27.8%, indicating that the horse projected with almost 2-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. The program revealed strength in the horse on a pure data level that was not observable in relating his final speed or win percentage data to the other horses. With that value, Tidal Wave was not a candidate for win but a strong candidate for place as the horse with the second strongest COMP in the field. In the race, Tidal Wave with Javier Castellano aboard made a nice move to the outside around the far turn to give himself running room and then accelerated down the stretch into second place before the wire, edging out the favorite, #8 Irish Aces at 1-1, who finished 3rd. Tidal Forces paid $19.80 for the place. The race illustrates how good things can happen when having faith in the program’s calculations.
The Turf program had the winner with its first selection of #5 Twirling Queen in race 9 at Saratoga—the $150K Corononation Stakes—which was run at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies. Twirling Queen had a total win probability of 40.63%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-5 compared to final odds of 7-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 54.6% win estimate (4-5 odds equivalent) and had the highest E1 and E2 win estimates of 100% and 100%, suiting the 5 1/2 f distance. The horse beat the favorite, #6 Ever So Sweet at 2-1, who led early on past the half-mile pole but then faded around the far turn.
The Grey program had a nice result in the 9th race at Gulfstream today, a $16K claiming race off the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. #8 Platinum Rocker was the first selection with a total win probability of 27.09% (5-2 odds equivalent) compared to final odds of 4-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a 50.9% win estimate (1-1 odds equivalent) while having slightly higher risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.54%. In the race, Platinum Rocker led from start to finish, beating two favorites in #10 Bellweather at 7-5 and #7 Miss Holly at 2-1. The finish was exciting with Platinum Rocker digging in against two challengers with less than a length lead for the last sixteenth of the race. Platinum Rocker paid $10.40 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 