Month: July 2024

There was a good opportunity with the Turf Program in race 3 at Saratoga today, a $100K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The program had as its first selection #1a Storm Ready at 4-1 (2-1 theoretical odds) while its second selection was #8 Inherent Promise at 10-1 compared to having theoretical odds of about 5-2. Projecting second in final speed with a 40.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent), a 53.9% COMP and a 16.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent), Inherent Promise was a strong candidate for a win or place wager. In the race, Inherent Promise saved ground by staying on the one path on the back stretch in sixth position until the far turn when the horse gained ground and then found clear running room along the rail. The horse sped up to take second before finishing a length back of the winner, #7 Clever Mischief at 5-1, who was a foreign horse. Inherent Promise paid $10.00 for the place.

The program got off to a good start in the opening at Saratoga today, a $20K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt. The first selection was #7 Empty Tomb at 6-1, who had a total win probability of 25.77% or theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 44.7% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 18.7%. In the race, Empty Tomb broke to the lead and went wire to wire, beating the two favorites, #6 Accidental Hero at 5-2 and #8 Rocco Strong at 3-1. Empty Tomb paid $15.00 for the win. This was a perfect setup with the program with the 1st selection being an overlay and winning.

In the finale at Hawthorne in race 9, a $33K allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Code Name at 5-1. The horse had a total win probability of 26.41%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. Code Name led from start to finish in the race, who was stalked and then challenged by #8 Man on the Attack at 9-1 around the far turn before that horse weakened to finish third.

The Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Trikari in race 6 at Belmont at the Big A today, the G1 $750K Belmont Derby, which was run at 1 3/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. Trikari had a total win probability of 39.17%, translating into theoretical odds of 8-5 versus final odds of 5-1. Trikari beat the two favorites, #1 Legend of Time at 3-2, and #5 Endlessly at 8-5. Trikari paid $12.40 for the win.

The program had a good result in the 4th race today at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-old fillies. The first two selections were #1 Smart Spending at 2-1 and #8 She Fled the Scene at 2-1. This was the order of the exacta, with the $2 exacta paying $23.