Month: July 2024

The program had a nice win in the 5th at Belmont at the Big A, a $35K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #6 Call Her Bluff with a total win probability of 30.95%, converting to theoretical odds of about 2-1. Her final odds were 5-1. Call Her Bluff projected first in final speed with a 54.4% win estimate (4-5 odds strength) and had the highest LP in the field at 48.5%. Call Her Bluff took the lead on the inside coming out of the far turn and never looked back, winning by four lengths over #1 Just Music at 3-1.

The program had good results today at Parx, including having winners with its first selections in the 2nd #4 Pontiffany), 3rd (#3 Summersattheshore), 4th (#2 Cloudytimes), 7th (#4 Big Dreamer) and 10th races (#4 Teewinot Pass). The first four were “chalk” winners at 5-2 odds or less, but the horse that won in the 10th in #Teewinot Pass was 9-1 compared to theoretical odds of 7-2. This was one time where the horse’s risk actually worked in his favor rather than against him. Teewinot Pass had a SPD win estimate of 32.3% (about 2-1 equivalent) and also a COMP of 45.5%, indicating the horse had about 1-1 strength against the other horses in terms of their speed components in the aggregate. However, Teewinot Pass had a CV value of 20.99%, which is high, as well as a low win percentage of only 3.6%. In the race, the horse fortunately ran to his maximum potential and put away the favorite, #2 Mucho Macho Eddie at 8-5. For the Parx card, the program had winners with its first selection in five out of eight non-maiden races for $5.60, $4.60, $3.00, $5.40 and $20.00. Its ROI was 141% (($38.6-$16)/$16).

https://videopress.com/v/2g2QoMFF?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

Race 2

Race 3

Race 4

Race 7

The Grey program had a very nice result in the 7th at Parx today, a $15K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first two selections of #1 Gladriel at 7-1 (3-1 theoretical odds) and #4 R Funny Bizness at 5-2 (4-1 theoretical odds). These were the exacta horses even though R Funny Bizness and #8 Valiant Majesty were both the favorites at 5-2. Gladriel had the highest win percentage in the field at 20.8% (4-1 equivalent) while also having the highest projections for E1 and E2 at 92.0% and 56.0%, showing his speed profile fit the 6f distance. Gladriel paid $16.40 for the win while the $1 exacta paid $28.10.

https://videopress.com/v/eBIYepgX?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true