The program had some nice results today at Saratoga, including in the one graded stakes races in the 9th—the $250K G2 Glen Falls Stakes at 1 1/2 mi. on the turf for four-year olds fillies and mares—with #7 McKulick winning at 2-1. The Turf program had McKulick as its first selection with theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projected first in final speed with a 41.5% win estimate (7-5 equivalent in odds) and had the highest win percentage at 25.6%. A horse that was extremely undervalued, #4 Parnac at 21-1, came in second. Parnac was a heavy overlay as a fourth selection with theoretical odds of 8-1, including having a 15.3% win percentage (6-1 equivalent in odds) and 18.5% COMP (9-2 equivalent in odds). McCulick paid $6.60 for the win and Parnac $16.20 for the place. McCulick won the same race a year ago.
In the 6th, a $90K maiden race for two-year olds, the program hit the exacta cold with its first two selections of #3 McDiesel at 4-1 and #8 Iron Max at 7-2. The $2 exacta paid $38.80.
Another race worth mentioning is the 8th, a $45K Optional Claiming race at 1 mi. for three-year-olds. #4 Jackson Heights won at 13-1 versus having theoretical odds of 8-1. What stood out about Jackson Heights was his win percentage of 15.6%, the highest in the field. On that basis alone his odds should have been 6-1 but he was 13-1 instead—a bargain for being the class of the field. In the race, the horse snuck up the rail down the stretch and snatched victory from #3 Dr. Kraft at the wire. Jackson heights paid $28 for the win. This handicapper had him just to show, which still paid $5.80.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 