Day: August 2, 2024

The Turf Program had another good result in the 6th race at Saratoga, a $35K OC at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year olds. The program had #5 Unleash the Power at 6-5 as its first selection, who had a total win probability of 42.42%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse projected fairly dominantly in the final speed with a 61.8% win estimate while having a whopping 81.8% COMP value. In the race, Unleash the Power made a move to the outside around the far turn and accelerated down the stretch to get past #1 Gilded Cracken at 4-1, who had led most of the race. Unleash the Power paid $4.50 for the win.

In the 2nd race at Saratoga, a $75K maiden race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for for three-year olds and up, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection of #7 Fly Right at 4-1. The horse had a total win probability of 59.74%, converting to odds of 3-5. Yes, you saw that correctly, 3-5! Thus, Fly Right was a huge overlay, who projected first in SPD with a 49.8% win estimate and had the highest win percentage in the field at 89.2%. Statistically, Fly Right was as much of a lock as you will ever see in horse racing, and he did not disappoint. In the race, Fly Right stalked 1A Paxsational until around the far turn and then took the lead and held on down the stretch. Fly Right paid $10.20 for the win in an easy win with the program.

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The program got off to a good start at Gulfstream today, having the tri-fecta order of the horses in the first race with its first three selections. The Turf Progam had #4 First Shot Fired at 7-5 as its first selection with a total win probability of 22.07%, converting to theoretical odds of 7-2. The second selection and eventual winner was #2 Chromotion at 5-1, who had a total win probability of 18.77%, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1. Chromotion was a slight overlay. The third selection was #5 Line Astray at 8-1 with a total win probability of 14.77%, translating to theoretical odds of 6-1. In the race, Chromotion broke well from the gate and took the early lead. He would keep the lead throughout, finishing couple lengths ahead of Line Astray, who came in second. Finishing third was favorite, First Shot Fired. With Chromotion being 5-1 and Line Astray 8-1, the $1 exacta paid $46.80 and the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $67.50. This was a nice result for the program in a wide-open race with twelve horses.