Day: August 3, 2024

Here are the projections for the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga today. It’s run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up and features a field of twelve horses, including Baffert trained, #3 National Treasure, who is the favorite at 9-5 on the M/L. The program likewise has him as the first selection with a total win probability of 31.08%, which translates to theoretical odds of 2-1. National Treasure is the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 77.4% and 68.4%. The horse has the highest win percentage at 26.8% and boasts a COMP of 63.7%, indicating the horse is very strong at the component level in the aggregate in the simulation.

The Turf Program had another nice result last night in the 7th at Del Mar, a $75K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The 1st selection was #3 Hannah Buckle at 5-1, who had a total win probability of 41.77%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-5. The horse projected 1st in final speed with a 100% win estimate and had a 100% win estimate for LP as well. In the race, Hannah Buckle was behind horses along the rail around the far turn and then a seam opened coming into the stretch that allowed her to get through and accelerate for the win. Excellent riding by Ayusa Armando, the jockey for Hannah Buckle. The horse paid $13.80 for the win. Seconds before the start, the odds on Hannah Buckle dropped like a brick from 9-1 to 5-1.

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