The Turf Program had a nice result in the 4th race at Saratoga today, a $40K claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #12 Boss of All at 6-1 with a total win probability of 22.42%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. Hence, Boss of All was a substantial overlay, who projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 38.3% and 34.2% along with having the highest win percentage in the field at 25.1%. This was a case of serious mispricing by the pool, where the class in the field in Boss of All not only was not getting odds to match her adjusted win percentage (3-1), she was being discounted at 6-1 even though she projected 2-1 strength in both E1 and E2 in a 5 1/2 f turf race. In the race, Boss of All stalked from off the pace and then gathered momentum around the far turn before accelerating down the stretch to win by three lengths. Boss of All paid $14.60 for the win. This race again shows the value of the Handicap Wizard and its calculations in identifying an undervalued favorite specific to the surface and distance.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 