By #4 Idiomatic at 4-5 was a heavy favorite yesterday in the G1 $500K Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga, which was at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. However, the Grey Program was showing a different picture of the race, where Idiomatic was not as strong of a favorite as the live odds indicated and the eventual winner, #3 Raging Sea, was a significant overlay at 6-1 versus theoretical odds of 7-2. Raging Sea projected first in E1 and E2 at 41.2% and 41.4% (7-5 strength in odds). Even on a SPD basis with a win estimate of 20.9%, Raging Sea was projecting 4-1 strength and had a strong COMP at 39.5%, indicating 7-5 strength at a component level in the aggregate in the simulation. The race illustrates the insights and value the statistics of the program, which in this race showed that Idiomatic was an overvalued and beatable favorite while the horse that the pool overlooked in Raging Sea actually measured up statistically and in the projections to contend for the win. In the race, Raging Sea did not run at the front but stalked from well off the pace, conserving energy until the far turn when the horse made a wide move and then accelerated down the stretch to come up in time to beat Idiomatic at the wire.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 