Travers Stakes Preview for Saratoga, Sat., Aug. 24

Today at Saratoga is the $1.25 mil. G1 Travers, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features the best three-year-olds in the country, including #8 Fierceness, winner of the Jim Dandy Stakes his last time out, #7 Dornoch, winner of the Haskell and Belmont Stakes in his last two races, and #2 Sierra Leone, who was second in the Jim Dandy Stakes and 3rd in the Belmont. The program is favoring #2 Sierra Leone in this race with a total win probability of 25.92%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projects second in final speed with a 23.1% win estimate while projecting first in LP with a 82.1% win estimate. In terms of money finishes, Sierra Leonne is the class in the race with a 26.9% (about 3-1 equivalent in odds). Second is #8 Fierceness with a total win probability of 23.71%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Fierceness projects first in final speed with a 36.1% win estimate and has the highest COMP in the field at 38.9%. Fierceness has high risk, shown in the 17.17% Coefficient of Variance, which also indicates that Fierceness final speed and COMP estimates are inflated. Third is #1 Torpedo Anna with a total win probability of 18.27%, converting to theoretical odds of 18.27%. Torpedo Anna projects first in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 37.3% and 40.1% and has the second highest COMP at 28.8%, projecting 2-1 strength for the horse at the component level in the aggregate. This is a significant number and may bode well for Torpedo Anna in the race, who comes into the race flying under the radar as a new horse who has run against only fillies and mares to this point. Fourth is #7 Dornoch with a total win probability of 16.47%, equating to theoretical odds of 5-1. Dornoch projects third in final speed with a 22.3% win estimate (about 7-2 strength) and has a 16.4% win percentage. All things considered, Fierceness is projecting the most speed in this race an should be respected as the probable favorite at 2-1 or lower, matching his final speed projection of 36.1%; however, Sierra Leone as a late runner has a speed profile that is best suited to the distance of 1 ¼ mi., thanks to his extraordinary high LP projection of 82.1%. That number indicates the horse is a virtual lock to beat other horses down the stretch. The Handicap Wizard is giving better theoretical odds to Sierra Leonne in this spot at 5-2 versus the M/L of 7-2. If Sierra Leonne is 3-1 or 7-2 or higher, he would have value at that price. Torpedo Anna is a wildcard in this race, now having to compete with the best three-year-old male horses in the country. Her COMP value indicates she has close to 2-1 strength with her components in the aggregate, which makes her a solid contender in this race. As for Dornoch, he has done everything right in his last two starts by winning the Belmont Stakes and the Haskell. Before the Belmont, Dornoch did run a poor race in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 10th, and so his speed projections reflect that poor start and are lower than the other contenders. As a result, Dornoch’s risk too is elevated, having a Coefficient of Variance of 9.81% . The final selections are #2 Sierra Leone, #8 Fierceness, #1 Torpedo Anna and #7 Dornoch.