Month: August 2024

The Grey Program had another good result in the 8th at Saratoga, a $35K claiming race at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three- and four-year olds. The first selection was #7 Game Warden at 5-1 with a total win probability of 33.09%, translating to theoretical odds of just under 2-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a 63.9% win estimate (3-5 strength in odds) and first in LP with a 65.4% along with having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.72%. In the race, Game Warden ran down #6 Rocketeer down the stretch, who had been leading early on. Game Warden showed his superior late kick as indicated in the high LP projection. The horse paid $12.60 for the win.

The Grey Program had another good result in the 11th at Gulfstream, a $25K optional claiming race at 5 1/2 f for three-year-olds, having the exacta order with its first two selections of #6 King Cab at 9-2 and #5 Rolling On at 8-5. The $1 exacta (6-5) paid $14.30. In the race, King Cab broke out to an early lead and held on to beat a late charging #5 Rolling On.

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The Grey Program hit the tri-fecta cold in the 9th at Gulfstream today, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares. The first three selections were #5 Funtastica at 2-1, #11 Musical Journey at 9-2 and #2 Na Dudette at 8-1. That was the order of finish in the tri-fecta. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $37.15.

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The Turf Program had a nice result in the 4th race at Saratoga today, a $40K claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #12 Boss of All at 6-1 with a total win probability of 22.42%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. Hence, Boss of All was a substantial overlay, who projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 38.3% and 34.2% along with having the highest win percentage in the field at 25.1%. This was a case of serious mispricing by the pool, where the class in the field in Boss of All not only was not getting odds to match her adjusted win percentage (3-1), she was being discounted at 6-1 even though she projected 2-1 strength in both E1 and E2 in a 5 1/2 f turf race. In the race, Boss of All stalked from off the pace and then gathered momentum around the far turn before accelerating down the stretch to win by three lengths. Boss of All paid $14.60 for the win. This race again shows the value of the Handicap Wizard and its calculations in identifying an undervalued favorite specific to the surface and distance.

The Turf Program had the winner of the Arlington Million at Colonial Downs today with its first selection of #4 Nations Pride at 1-1. This is exactly where the horse’s fair value was according to the program in having a total win probability of 49.16% and theoretical odds of 1-1.