The Turf Program had the exacta order correct with its first two selections in the $500K Secretariat Stakes at Colonial Down in the 9th. Those selections were #9 Trikari at 6-1 and #1 Brilliant Berti at 3-5. The theoretical odds assigned to the horses by the program were 9-5 and 2-1 based on total win probabilities of 34.57% and 30.36%. Trikari took the lead coming out of the far turn to finish first while Brilliant Perti rallied late to take second. The $2 exa. paid $9.
The Turf Program had a stellar result in the 5th race at Gulfstream today, a $16K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds. The first selection was #1 Kizzy at 12-1, who had a total winning probability of 25.51%, translating into theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse projected second in final speed with a 34.6% win estimate while having the third strongest win percentage at 18.6%. It worth nothing that he was in COMP with a value of 34.5% (2-1 equivalent strength in odds), indicating strength in the projections at the component level. In the race, Kizzy went wire to wire uncontested while the third selection, #7, Musical Romance finished 2nd. Kizzy paid $26.00 and the $1 exacta paid $47.80.
The program had some good results at Saratoga on Sunday, including in the one stakes races in the 9th—the G3 $200K Adriondack Stakes at 6 1/2 f on the dirt for two year old fillies. The first selection was #9 The Queens MG at 5-2 with a total win probability of 23.25%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse came wide around the far turn and then accelerated down the stretch to win impressively by eight lengths, defeating the favorite #2 Italian Soiree at 8-5, who finished second.
And in one of the best races this handicapper has seen in a long time, the program also had a successful result in the 3rd race, a $25K claiming race at a 1 1/8 mi. for three year olds, with its first selection of #8 Bossmakinbossmoves at 7-2, who defeated the favorite #6 Colloquy at 1-1 in a spectacular comeback. After having a bad start, Colloquy rallied and passed Bossmakinbossmoves and the rest of the leaders coming out of the far turn only to be caught by a re-rallying Bossmakinbossmoves at the wire.
Here are the projections for the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga today. It’s run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up and features a field of twelve horses, including Baffert trained, #3 National Treasure, who is the favorite at 9-5 on the M/L. The program likewise has him as the first selection with a total win probability of 31.08%, which translates to theoretical odds of 2-1. National Treasure is the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 77.4% and 68.4%. The horse has the highest win percentage at 26.8% and boasts a COMP of 63.7%, indicating the horse is very strong at the component level in the aggregate in the simulation.
The Turf Program had another nice result last night in the 7th at Del Mar, a $75K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The 1st selection was #3 Hannah Buckle at 5-1, who had a total win probability of 41.77%, equating to theoretical odds of 7-5. The horse projected 1st in final speed with a 100% win estimate and had a 100% win estimate for LP as well. In the race, Hannah Buckle was behind horses along the rail around the far turn and then a seam opened coming into the stretch that allowed her to get through and accelerate for the win. Excellent riding by Ayusa Armando, the jockey for Hannah Buckle. The horse paid $13.80 for the win. Seconds before the start, the odds on Hannah Buckle dropped like a brick from 9-1 to 5-1.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 